僅維持365分鐘的戒嚴，會讓韓國的出境旅遊業反轉向下嗎？
Will a 365-Minute Martial Law Turn South Korea's Outbound Tourism Downward?

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

僅維持365分鐘的戒嚴，會讓韓國的出境旅遊業反轉向下嗎？

近期韓國戒嚴事件震驚全球。韓國總統尹錫悅於12月3日晚間，宣佈全國緊急戒嚴，隨後戒嚴令第1號公告禁止一切政治活動，包括國會集會；不過，韓國國會議員在150分鐘內集結於汝矣島國會議事堂，並投票通過解除戒嚴，最終尹錫悅在公告戒嚴6小時後解除戒嚴。短短365分鐘的戒嚴，看似鬧劇，但披露了韓國的經濟風險，該國旅遊行業的變動與轉折也將因此加速。

旅行警示仍維持”一般”

一般在看待目的地各種風險對旅遊的影響時，主要會從旅遊警示（Travel Warning）與資金進出兩個層面觀察，兩者基本為正相關。旅行警示是官方機構針對國家/目的地公示的安全性資訊，常分為四級，即”一般”、”提醒”、”避免非必要旅遊”和”禁止旅遊/儘速離境”，目前主要國家大體仍將韓國維持在”一般”，主要更新了提醒事項，比如建議國民”避開正在舉行示威活動的區域”，提醒”和平示威也可能升級為暴力”，英國與澳洲則明確建議本國旅客要避開光化門與汝矣島等地區。旅遊警示所彰顯的風險在於，被列入”禁止旅遊/儘速離境”的目的地，多數的商用保險保障會中止、短期簽證會撤銷、交通會出現限制（比如航班取消或減少），本次韓國沒有演變到該狀況。

資金風控基本未啟動

從資金進出看，戒嚴常意味著限制資金流動。官方措施具體會包括監控金融交易、管制外匯、限制現金流動與凍結資產。根據”大韓民國憲法”第77條，總統的戒嚴權限就被賦予這些權力。不過因為很快解嚴，這部分的細則甚至沒有被公告。而民間措施的部分，目前就海擇資本觀察，與韓國相涉的旅遊供應鏈尚未對韓國的組團社與地接社做資金風控。我們認為原因在於，韓國做為目的地，市場規模還不算特別大，大公司覺得還沒到必須作的程度，小公司也不想因為做出頭鳥而失去訂單。

國民旅遊、入境旅遊與出境旅遊，將受不同程度影響

如果僅從旅遊警示與資金進出做為核心觀察指標，本次的短時間戒嚴對韓國旅遊衝擊並不巨大。不過，長遠來看，我們認為對韓國旅遊行業，會依照國民旅遊、入境旅遊與出境旅遊，產生由小到大的影響。

本次國民旅遊基本不會受到衝擊，主要原因是資金進出、交通移動、現有訂單，都因為快速解嚴而不需對此反應。設若二次戒嚴，最先要考慮的是基於限制行動自由連帶的影響，比如宵禁措施會影響夜間活動（夜市、夜間觀光…），交通限制會影響區域流動（如關閉高速公路、火車、航班…），特定地區可能被劃為軍事管制區。

入境旅遊會小有受挫。雖然旅遊警示基本未升級，但難以避免（潛在的）自由行旅客主動取消行程安排；旅行團旅客通常較為謹慎，也可能強制退款或更改目的地。研學類旅客，對安全的定義是保守中的保守，國際學校、留學機構或學術交流活動會受到影響，但我們認為僅屬短期現象。

出境旅遊可能出現日本式反轉

受創最大的會是與匯率相關的出境旅遊，但不是斷崖式崩解，更可能是從峰值緩緩下行。值得注意的是，即便戒嚴迅速解除，韓元對各國貨幣的匯率仍然弱勢，並續創2022年10月以來的低點，大有挑戰2009年3月（30年）低點的趨勢。韓元貶值與經濟低迷，遲早會衝擊韓國出境旅遊產業，具體近年日本低迷的出境旅遊產值可為殷鑑。而韓國人出境旅遊的主要目的地將會受到影響，具體影響取決於韓國遊客在各國總入境遊客中所占的比例，2024年上半年，韓國佔日本、越南、菲律賓三國入境遊客超過四分之一，最明顯衝擊的可能會是日本。雖然貨幣貶值會使外國旅客入境韓國的消費成本下降，但韓國目的地產品尚不如日本豐富多元，受惠程度可能仍不如日本。

韓企的境外投資可能增強

在貨幣貶值期間，企業通過投資方式轉移資金是一種常見的避險策略，尤其是對於國際化企業利用境外收入而言。從旅遊投資的角度看，規模較大、與韓國市場高度相關或具備快速回報能力的創業公司更容易獲得資金支持，支持的形式可能會偏好較低風險的公司債或混合型融資。

戒嚴落幕、混沌啟幕

本次韓國從戒嚴到解嚴，時間差僅僅365分鐘，為韓國史上最低紀錄，被視為鬧劇。但事實上這並非鬧劇，而是被快速拆除引信的火藥庫，短期的風險雖然解除，長期的混沌可能才剛開始。

事件有三點值得嚴肅以待：首先，韓國軍事體系的最高作戰指揮權由韓美聯合司令部（CFC）指揮，戒嚴時動用軍隊必定經過美國同意，所以美國原本至少不反對戒嚴，失敗的關鍵是軍方未積極以武力鎮壓；其次，雖然當天國會出席的190席議員全數投票通過解嚴，但300席中未出席的110席議員可能存在不同意見；最後，韓國經濟低迷的深度與時間長度超過預期，帶動一般民眾相對剝奪感，這才是一切的根源。可以說，即使尹錫悅解除戒嚴令，局勢仍然不穩定。事件的短期影響不像戒嚴開始時那麼大，但長期影響也不像戒嚴解除時那麼小，雖然旅遊相對剛需，但經濟與政治動盪會讓細分領域落差變大，出境旅遊極可能有走向日本化的向下轉折風險。

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Haize Capital Insights of the Day

Will a 365-Minute Martial Law Turn South Korea's Outbound Tourism Downward?

The recent martial law event in South Korea shocked the world. On the evening of December 3, President Yoon Suk-yeol declared a nationwide state of emergency, announcing Martial Law No. 1, which prohibited all political activities, including parliamentary sessions. However, within 150 minutes, members of the National Assembly gathered at the National Assembly Building in Yeouido and voted to terminate the martial law. Ultimately, Yoon lifted the martial law six hours after its announcement. The brief 365-minute martial law, though seemingly a farce, exposed South Korea's economic vulnerabilities, with changes and shifts in its tourism industry likely to accelerate.

Travel Warnings Remain at "Normal"

When evaluating the impact of destination risks on tourism, two main factors are typically considered: travel warnings and capital flow restrictions, both of which are generally positively correlated. Travel warnings, issued by official agencies, categorize the safety of a destination into four levels: "Normal," "Alert," "Avoid Non-Essential Travel," and "Do Not Travel/Leave Immediately." Major countries currently maintain South Korea at the "Normal" level, with updates primarily consisting of cautionary advice, such as recommending citizens "avoid areas where protests are taking place" and warning that "peaceful demonstrations may escalate into violence." For instance, the UK and Australia explicitly advised travelers to avoid areas like Gwanghwamun and Yeouido.

The risks highlighted by travel warnings include the suspension of commercial insurance coverage, cancellation of short-term visas, and transportation disruptions (e.g., flight cancellations or reductions) when destinations are listed under the highest warning levels. In this instance, South Korea did not escalate to such a situation.

Capital Flow Restrictions Were Barely Initiated

From the perspective of capital flow, martial law often implies restricted financial transactions. Official measures may include monitoring financial transactions, controlling foreign exchange, restricting cash flow, and freezing assets. According to Article 77 of the South Korean Constitution, the president's martial law powers encompass such authority. However, due to the swift lifting of martial law, these details were never publicly announced.

On the private sector side, based on observations from Haize Capital, tourism supply chains related to South Korea have not imposed financial restrictions on South Korean travel agencies or ground operators. We believe the reason lies in the fact that South Korea's market size as a destination is not significant enough to warrant such actions for large companies, while smaller companies prefer not to risk losing orders by acting first.

Differential Impacts on Domestic, Inbound, and Outbound Tourism

If travel warnings and capital flow are the primary indicators, this brief martial law had limited immediate impact on South Korea's tourism industry. However, in the long term, we foresee varying degrees of influence on domestic, inbound, and outbound tourism, with effects intensifying in this order.

Domestic Tourism: Minimal Impact Domestic tourism is unlikely to suffer significant impact due to the quick lifting of martial law. Factors such as financial flow, transportation, and existing bookings remain unaffected. In the event of a second martial law, action restrictions would need to be considered, such as curfews affecting nighttime activities (e.g., night markets, night tours) or regional mobility (e.g., highway, rail, and flight closures). Certain areas may also be designated as military control zones.

Inbound Tourism: Short-Term Setbacks Inbound tourism may experience minor setbacks. While travel warnings were not upgraded, potential independent travelers may proactively cancel plans, and group travelers—typically more cautious—may demand refunds or change destinations. Educational tourists, defined by their conservative approach to safety, may see disruptions to activities organized by international schools, study abroad agencies, or academic exchanges. However, this is expected to be a short-term phenomenon.

Outbound Tourism: Risk of a "Japanese-Style" Decline The most significant impact will likely be on outbound tourism, closely tied to exchange rates. While not a precipitous collapse, a gradual decline from peak levels is expected. Even with the swift lifting of martial law, the South Korean won continues to weaken against major currencies, reaching lows not seen since October 2022 and approaching the 30-year low of March 2009. The depreciation of the won and economic stagnation will inevitably affect South Korea's outbound tourism industry. The recent decline in Japan's outbound tourism revenue serves as a cautionary tale.

South Korea's major outbound destinations will bear the brunt of this impact, depending on the proportion of South Korean tourists among their total inbound visitors. In the first half of 2024, South Korean tourists accounted for more than a quarter of inbound visitors to Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines, with Japan being the most affected. Although currency depreciation reduces costs for foreign tourists visiting South Korea, its destination offerings are not as diverse and rich as Japan's, meaning the benefits may be relatively limited.

South Korean Companies' Overseas Investments May Strengthen

During periods of currency depreciation, companies often transfer funds through investments as a common hedging strategy, especially for internationalized businesses utilizing overseas revenue. From the perspective of tourism investment, startups that are larger in scale, closely linked to the South Korean market, or capable of quick returns are more likely to secure funding support. Preferred forms of support may include lower-risk corporate bonds or hybrid financing.

The Curtain Falls on Martial Law, Chaos Begins

South Korea's martial law lasted only 365 minutes, the shortest in its history, and was perceived as a farce. However, it was not a farce but rather a powder keg whose fuse was quickly removed. While short-term risks have been mitigated, long-term uncertainties may just be beginning. This event highlights three critical issues:

The South Korean military's highest operational command authority lies with the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC). Martial law deployment of troops requires U.S. consent, indicating at least initial U.S. approval of martial law. Its failure stemmed from the military's lack of willingness to suppress dissent with force. Although all 190 parliament members present voted to terminate martial law, the 110 absent members out of 300 may hold differing opinions. The depth and duration of South Korea's economic stagnation have exceeded expectations, fostering a sense of relative deprivation among the general populace, which is the root cause of unrest.

In summary, even with Yoon Suk-yeol lifting martial law, instability persists. The short-term impact is not as severe as when martial law was initiated, but the long-term implications are more significant than when it was lifted. Although tourism remains a relatively essential sector, economic and political turbulence will magnify disparities in its subfields, with outbound tourism likely facing a downward inflection reminiscent of Japan's decline.

標籤 Label： OTA SouthKorea Outbound Inbound Domestic Japan TravelWarning RiskControl MartialLaw Vietnam Philippine