對福建、上海居民赴台團隊遊將恢復的謹慎看法
A Cautious Perspective on Resuming Group Tours from Fujian and Shanghai to Taiwan

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

對福建、上海居民赴台團隊遊將恢復的謹慎看法

近期，大陸官方宣佈即將恢復福建、上海居民赴台團隊遊的政策，此消息引起兩岸旅遊業的高度關注。然而，海擇資本認為，此政策能否順利實施仍存在變數，成功與否尚需觀察，建議業者對初期投入持謹慎態度。

赴台團隊遊開放溯源

1月17日上午9點，中國國務院台辦發布了標題為”國台辦：積極支持、樂見其成閩滬居民赴台團隊遊”的新聞稿，國台辦發言人陳斌華表示，大陸方面始終秉持「兩岸一家親」理念，支持推動兩岸人員往來正常化及交流常態化，並強調此舉旨在促進台灣同胞福祉。消息甫出，即引發過往經營赴台遊的大陸組團社與台灣地接社的熱烈討論。

本次開放措施的契機，可追溯至上個月的”台北上海雙城論壇”。論壇中，上海副市長華源表示，將積極推動上海居民赴台團隊遊，並規劃包含台北市在內的旅遊路線，展現疫後首個陸客團回歸的和解氛圍。

台灣端的立場分歧

針對兩岸論壇，台灣觀光署的回應是”在目前兩岸觀光旅遊相關規畫基礎上，相關機關準備工作均已就緒，將視陸方文旅部正式宣布開放的具體情況或經由觀光小兩會協商，即時相應實施”，看似樂觀。

不過，台灣負責兩岸政策的最高單位陸委會明顯有不同意見，在雙城論壇的隔日（12月18日），官方正式文字聲明，提到了陸委會的限制性條件，包括”懲獨22條”帶來安全爭議（聲明第二點）、尋求釋放爭議個案人員（聲明第二點）、大陸未來不能叫停團隊遊（聲明第四點）。

民進黨政府一直指出希望在”對等”基礎上推動兩岸旅遊恢復，陸委會的回應，我們認為可以理解為對於”對等”的最新文字版的定義。從賴清德總統在島內的嚴重朝野對立來看，我們認為這個定義短時間不會修正。

兩岸互信的風向球

根據國台辦的聲明，大陸方面呼籲民進黨當局解除”禁團令”，取消對大陸旅遊的警示，並全面恢復客運直航航點與航班，為兩岸交流創造更有利的條件。若根據該聲明，再結合陸委會在上個月表明要求由"由台旅會和海旅會展開溝通"，但這次陸委會或台旅會並沒有與國台辦同步發放新聞稿。我們認為，此次政策的推動更像是大陸方面的單邊行動，而非雙方充分協調後的結果。

這次恢復政策僅針對上海與福建兩地，顯示其試點性質，也反映了大陸政府的考慮涵蓋了，若台灣方面基於政治考量拒絕接納陸客團，相關影響將進一步考驗兩岸互信基礎。

謹慎樂觀、審慎投入

從情感上，兩岸恢復交流是許多人期待的目標；然而，從現實角度看，鑑於目前兩岸政治氛圍及相關聲明，我們對此次政策的最終落實持謹慎樂觀的態度，建議業界審慎評估投入與風險。

------

Haize Capital Insights of the Day

A Cautious Perspective on Resuming Group Tours from Fujian and Shanghai to Taiwan

Recently, the Chinese mainland announced plans to resume group tours for residents of Fujian and Shanghai to Taiwan. This announcement has garnered significant attention from the tourism industries on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. However, Haize Capital believes that the policy's successful implementation remains uncertain, and the likelihood of failure could outweigh success. We recommend that industry stakeholders approach initial investments with caution.

The Origin of the Policy

On January 17 at 9 a.m., the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council issued a press release titled “TAO: Actively Supporting and Welcoming Group Tours from Fujian and Shanghai Residents to Taiwan.” Spokesperson Chen Binhua stated that the mainland adheres to the concept of “Both Sides of the Strait Are One Family,” consistently supporting the normalization of personnel exchanges and interactions across the Strait to promote the well-being of Taiwan compatriots. This news sparked lively discussions among mainland travel agencies that previously organized tours to Taiwan and Taiwanese destination management companies.

The initiative traces back to last month's "Taipei-Shanghai Twin-City Forum," during which Shanghai Deputy Mayor Hua Yuan expressed an active interest in promoting group tours to Taiwan, specifically planning itineraries that include Taipei. This gesture symbolized reconciliation and paved the way for the first post-pandemic mainland tour groups to visit Taiwan.

Divergent Views from the Taiwanese Side

In response to the forum, Taiwan's Tourism Bureau stated, "On the basis of the current cross-strait tourism plans, relevant agencies have completed their preparations and will respond promptly depending on the formal announcement by the mainland's Ministry of Culture and Tourism or through discussions via the two tourism associations." This initial response appeared optimistic.

However, Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), the primary agency responsible for cross-strait policies, expressed differing opinions the day after the forum (December 18). Its official statement outlined several conditions, including concerns over the "Anti-Independence 22 Measures" impacting safety (Clause 2), demands for the release of individuals involved in controversial cases (Clause 2), and assurances that the mainland would not unilaterally halt group tours in the future (Clause 4).

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government has consistently emphasized the need for "reciprocity" in promoting cross-strait tourism recovery. MAC's statement may be interpreted as the latest definition of this reciprocity. Given President Lai Ching-te's current approach amid severe domestic political polarization, we believe this definition is unlikely to change in the short term.

A Litmus Test for Cross-Strait Trust

According to the Taiwan Affairs Office, the mainland urges the DPP authorities to lift the "group tour ban," revoke the travel advisories for mainland destinations, and fully restore direct passenger flights and routes to create favorable conditions for cross-strait exchanges. This statement, combined with MAC's previous request for communication via the Straits Tourism Associations, suggests that this policy push appears to be more of a unilateral move by the mainland rather than the result of bilateral coordination.

The policy’s focus on Shanghai and Fujian indicates a pilot approach, reflecting the mainland’s calculated considerations. If Taiwan's government rejects the resumption of mainland group tours based on political factors, it could further strain cross-strait trust.

Cautious Optimism and Prudent Investment

Emotionally, the resumption of cross-strait exchanges is a goal many hope for. However, from a pragmatic perspective, given the current political atmosphere and the statements from both sides, we adopt a cautiously optimistic stance regarding the policy’s eventual implementation. We advise industry players to carefully evaluate their investments and potential risks