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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
Expedia的Q4盈利意味它是最懂短視頻轉化的OTA嗎?
Expedia近期發布2024Q4財報，業績顯示，間夜量、總交易額與收入，都達到兩位數增長，尤其是象徵市場占有率的間夜量（8,640萬間夜），增速達11.6%，優於前三季（7.1%、10.3%、9.1%）。然而，這一增長是否可持續？是短視頻媒體投資戰略生效？還是在AI應用取得突破？抑或是紮實的財務與行銷策略基本功生效？海擇資本以本文剖析Expedia的增長來源及未來走向。
To C戰略的好消息
本季Expedia集團旗下針對C端消費者的三個核心品牌表現都不錯，包括面向美國客源的一站式服務（Brand）Expedia、面向境外客源的住宿品牌Hotels.com、以及面向全球目的地的度假租賃公司Vrbo。
本季（Brand）Expedia的間夜增速超過10%，機票事業也明顯改善；Hotels.com受國際市場動能推動，預訂量恢復小幅成長；Vrbo則新增位於城市地區的公寓類庫存，新增數約100萬套房產（疫情前總數約200萬套，偏中高端），都是屬於無房東的非共享空間（相對於Airbnb將同一公寓不同房間切分短租的共享產品），迅速增加了在低價產品的供給。
本季美國區的間夜增速為個位數，相較之下，歐洲區與其他市場都超過10%，歐洲推估更高。值得注意的是，固然國際市場正在有效增長，但美國區內已開始止血，避免被Airbnb和Booking進一步蠶食市場份額的趨勢延續。從財報收入面來看，本季Expedia的集團收入仍有59.6%來自美國，因此止血是個好消息。
內容投資的初步成果：Travel Shops
Expedia是少數直接公告會投資內容創作者及MCN公司的OTA，這與傳統OTA主要投資“具客流量的平台“或“具資源的供應端“，對內容創作者僅進行行銷投放的策略有所不同。然而，投資內容創作者或MCN公司，能否產生超過行銷投放的回報，仍然存在疑問。
2024年9月推出的“旅遊商店”（Travel Shops），部分解答了投資人的疑惑。創作者通過短視頻，將潛在消費者引流到Expedia的自有平台“旅遊商店”進行消費，並可在Expedia的“旅遊商店”平台編輯自己的產品主題。雖然目前該平台僅限美國和英國的iOS應用程式使用，但官方已說明今（2025）年將向所有人開放，產品庫也會從目前的300萬個房源，擴展至22萬個活動體驗與超過500家航空公司的機票。
此舉雖然具有創新性，但基於內容創作者推薦旅遊產品並賺取佣金的模式，本質仍屬於傳統的聯盟行銷模式。雖然Expedia的旅遊商店做的是（基於旅遊主題的）“交易“，與同為OTA的攜程所耕耘的“自有內容”生態圈（即”星球號”）不同，但這形同又多了一層轉化（從創作者的短視頻到Expedia “旅遊商店”），仍難避免OTA本身缺乏社交平台用戶粘性的天生缺陷，創作者是否能長期帶來穩定轉換，尚無正面典範可參照。
從另一個角度來說，中國境內抖音能直接販售旅遊產品，要獨立再造一個旅遊版的抖音，進行推廣與銷售，並不容易。境外TikTok與Youtube等媒體平台目前仍無法直接銷售旅遊產品，Expedia有無可能挖掘出另一條路建立競爭優勢，仍可觀察。只是，傳統的廣告投放可以只單看ROI，相對股權投資更好收放。
AI應用的階段性成果
AI對Expedia本季的C端消費者訂單帶來了多大提升？如果投資人期待的是AI聊天機器人Romie或ChatGPT plug-in能帶來顯著轉化，恐怕還未能實現。然而，從“降本增效”的角度來看，AI已顯示出優勢。
Expedia的2025年三大目標：提供旅行者更多價值、在有機會的業務領域進行投資、提高營運效率並擴大利潤率，這三項皆已與AI技術密切相關。Expedia所販售的產品已通過AI洞察和數據進行優化，應用於個人化推薦、針對性優惠及智能客服，以降低運營成本並提升用戶體驗。
值得注意的是，雖然Expedia強調AI原生旅遊新創公司的崛起，將為其B2B業務帶來合作機會。但旅遊行業的核心，仍是與同業在資源與客源的競爭；新創公司容或在客源獲取的ROI有先發優勢，但在資源層面仍難以避免價格比拚，新創公司仍有可能與其他分銷系統合作，Expedia未必能夠獨佔優勢。
仍然是個難纏的OTA玩家
本季度財報公布後，Expedia股價上漲17%，但我們認為，核心驅動力來自於行銷投放調整與產品優化戰略，而非內容與AI投資的直接回報。
在行銷投放的層面，Expedia透過One Key方案提供大額折扣，例如新用戶下載核心品牌APP即可獲得15美元折扣，且可在一次訂單中全額抵扣。再加上Vrbo增加低價庫存的產品戰略，則證明了Expedia的市場定位明顯向普羅大眾轉移，這也讓”15美元”的補貼事半功倍。
更值得一提的是Expedia的財政紀律。Expedia提到"我們將繼續在回報最佳的領域中投資，並在回報不強勁的領域中撤退（We're going to continue leaning in where we see the best returns and pulling back where the returns aren't as strong.）"。這當然是句很籠統的話，但如果要執行力強，就牽涉如何設立完整的ROI檢核指標；特別行銷投放容易收放，股權投資就並非如此。Expedia可能在投資時，就已用更嚴謹的保護條款維護自己能”快進快出”的利益（這對被投資的人可能不是好事）。
長遠來看，價格戰的難題，在於在價格競爭與利潤率管理間尋找平衡點。Expedia 2024Q4的亮眼成績，反映出其行銷投放靈活性、低價產品策略與財務紀律的有效性；至少，近3億美元的淨利與能配發股利的實力，顯示它已成功地找到平衡點。對OTA競爭對手來說，這次的戰略組合雖然推出得晚，但一樣難纏。
Exedia目前仍很好的握有市場競爭的入場券，至於來自內容與AI投資的長期競爭優勢，仍需更多時間驗證。
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Haize Capital Insights of the Day
Does Expedia’s Q4 Profitability Indicate That It Best Understands Short-Video Conversion Among OTAs?
Expedia recently released its 2024 Q4 financial report, showing double-digit growth in room nights, total transaction volume, and revenue. Particularly, its market share-representative metric, room nights (86.4 million), saw an 11.6% growth rate, outperforming the previous three quarters (7.1%, 10.3%, 9.1%). However, is this growth sustainable? Is it the result of its short-video media investment strategy? A breakthrough in AI applications? Or simply a solid foundation in financial and marketing strategies? This analysis by Haize Capital examines the sources of Expedia’s growth and its future trajectory.
Positive Developments in Expedia’s To-C Strategy
Expedia’s three core brands targeting direct consumers performed well this quarter: the all-in-one travel service Brand Expedia for U.S. travelers, Hotels.com for international accommodations, and Vrbo, a global vacation rental platform.
Brand Expedia’s room nights grew by over 10%, and its airline business showed notable improvement. Hotels.com benefited from strong international market momentum, leading to a modest rebound in booking volume. Vrbo expanded its inventory with an additional one million urban apartments, focusing on non-shared private spaces (compared to Airbnb’s model of splitting apartment rooms for short-term rentals). This significantly increased its offerings in the budget-friendly segment.
In regional performance, the U.S. market recorded single-digit room night growth, while Europe and other international markets grew by over 10%, with Europe likely leading the way. While international markets are playing an increasingly significant role in Expedia’s expansion, the stabilization of the U.S. market is notable. This suggests Expedia is successfully stemming losses to competitors like Airbnb and Booking. Financially, the U.S. still accounts for 59.6% of Expedia’s total revenue, making this stabilization an essential development.
Initial Results from Content Investments: Travel Shops
Expedia is one of the few OTAs that has publicly announced direct investments in content creators and MCN (multi-channel network) companies. This contrasts with traditional OTAs, which mainly invest in traffic platforms or supply-side resources, and typically engage content creators only through paid marketing placements. However, a key question remains: Can investing in creators and MCN companies generate returns that exceed conventional marketing spend?
Launched in September 2024, Expedia’s “Travel Shops” partly answers this question. The initiative allows creators to direct potential travelers from short videos to Expedia’s proprietary Travel Shops platform, where they can book trips. Creators can curate and edit their own travel-themed storefronts within the Expedia ecosystem. Currently, this feature is only available on iOS in the U.S. and U.K., but Expedia plans to expand it to all users in 2025, increasing its product range from 3 million lodging options to 220,000 activity experiences and over 500 airlines.
While innovative, this model still closely resembles traditional affiliate marketing—content creators earn commissions by recommending travel products. Expedia’s Travel Shops focuses on commerce-driven transactions, setting it apart from Ctrip’s content ecosystem, Xingqiuhao, which emphasizes proprietary content creation. However, the added step of transitioning from creators' short videos to Expedia’s Travel Shops introduces an extra layer in the conversion funnel, exacerbating the challenge of OTAs lacking strong social media stickiness. The ability of creators to generate long-term, stable conversions remains unproven.
From another perspective, Douyin in China can already sell travel products directly, whereas creating an independent "travel version of Douyin" with both marketing and sales functions is extremely challenging. TikTok and YouTube currently do not allow direct travel bookings, raising the question of whether Expedia can carve out a competitive niche before these platforms evolve. At the very least, traditional ad placements offer a more straightforward ROI assessment and are easier to adjust than equity investments.
AI Investment: Incremental Progress, No Direct Revenue Boost
Did AI drive Expedia’s surge in direct consumer bookings this quarter? If investors were expecting AI tools like the Romie chatbot or ChatGPT plug-ins to drive significant revenue conversion, the results would likely be underwhelming. However, from a cost reduction and efficiency standpoint, AI has shown clear benefits.
Expedia’s three main objectives for 2025—providing more value to travelers, investing in high-potential business areas, and enhancing operational efficiency while expanding profit margins—are closely tied to AI applications. Expedia is already leveraging AI-powered insights and data analytics to optimize personalized recommendations, targeted pricing, and smart customer support, lowering operational costs while improving user experience.
One key aspect to monitor is Expedia’s emphasis on partnering with AI-native travel startups, which could bring growth opportunities for its B2B segment. However, the travel industry remains fundamentally a competition over supply and demand. While startups may hold an early advantage in customer acquisition, they still need to compete on supplier pricing, making it likely that these firms will also partner with Expedia’s competitors rather than relying solely on its ecosystem.
A Persistent OTA Competitor
Following the earnings report, Expedia’s stock price surged 17%, but we believe the primary drivers were marketing adjustments and product optimization strategies rather than direct returns from content and AI investments.
In marketing, Expedia leveraged its One Key program to offer substantial discounts—for example, new users who download its core brand apps receive a $15 credit that can be fully applied to a booking. This, combined with Vrbo’s expanded budget-friendly inventory, makes Expedia’s pricing strategy significantly more competitive. By targeting more price-sensitive travelers, the perceived value of the $15 subsidy is further amplified.
Another key aspect is Expedia’s financial discipline. The company stated, “We’re going to continue leaning in where we see the best returns and pulling back where the returns aren’t as strong.” While most OTAs would make similar claims, the real test is execution—how rigorously Expedia defines ROI benchmarks and ensures that its investments remain flexible. Marketing spend is easier to scale up or down, but equity investments require longer commitment cycles. Expedia may be securing its ability to exit investments quickly through stricter protective clauses, which could be less favorable for the companies it invests in.
The Long-Term Challenge: Balancing Price Competition with Profitability
The biggest challenge in price wars is finding the right balance between aggressive discounts and profit margin management. Expedia’s Q4 success highlights its flexible marketing execution, competitive pricing strategy, and disciplined financial management. With nearly $300 million in net profit and the ability to distribute dividends, Expedia has found a profitable equilibrium—for now.
For competitors, Expedia’s strategic adjustments may have been late, but they remain formidable. The company still holds a strong position in the OTA market, but whether its content and AI investments will create long-term competitive advantages remains an open question that only time will answer.