Airbnb 2025：會開始”美團化”嗎？
Will Airbnb Begin Its “Meituanization” in 2025?

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

Airbnb 2025：會開始”美團化”嗎？

2024Q4財報發布後，Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky提出了一個令人驚訝的目標：希望將Airbnb用戶對APP的使用頻率從目前的”每年1-2次”提升至”每週1-2” 次。這意味著Airbnb期望用戶的使用頻率提高超過50倍。這樣的變革如果成功，將徹底改變Airbnb的商業模式，使其不再僅是一個以旅遊為核心的短租平台，而是一個高頻次的本地生活平台。而本次發布讓Airbnb單日股價上漲了14.5%。

這樣的目標聽起來雄心勃勃，但它真的可行嗎（顯然其他的OTA並不想設定這樣的目標）？Airbnb憑什麼認為自己能夠推動這種轉變？它是否真的會開始走向”美團化”？要做到轉變只能往本地生活走，別無他法嗎？海擇資本嘗試解答這些疑惑。

很好也很平淡的2024Q4財報

從財務數據來看，Airbnb在2024Q4表現亮眼。間夜量達1.11億，同比增長 12%，為2024年單季度最佳。單季淨利潤達4.6億美元，盈利能力穩定，現金流充裕，並能夠持續回購股票，提高股東價值。

特別不容易的是，Airbnb前有把旅遊產品做到工業標準化銷售的巨頭Booking，後有砸巨額補貼仍能盈利的Expedia，看好的新興市場已有Trip.com（攜程）深入布局，可以說Chesky憑著敏銳的戰略嗅覺提前布局，在夾縫中求生存，同時維持住運營數據與盈利能力。

最好的例子是，早在2023年初，基於認定通膨將衝擊購買能力的預期，Airbnb恢復提供單一房間的共享住宿，本質上這更像青年旅舍的共住通鋪。2024年下半年，Expedia旗下的Vrbo，發現必須爭取低單價客源，才開始推無前台公寓，但單價肯定仍比單一房間高。

現在，Chesky面臨的核心問題在於用戶結構與市場滲透率。目前70%的訂單來自美加英法澳五國，這些市場的滲透率已經很高，增長空間有限。此外，Airbnb長期以來依賴品牌影響力，而非以效果廣告獲取客源，這意味著儘管其網站擁有大量獨立訪客與活躍用戶，但其中相當一部分未轉化為實際交易。

因此，Chesky的新策略——提高使用頻率——可能是一種解決市場飽和問題的途徑。如果Airbnb能夠從”低頻”模式轉向”高頻”模式，或許能夠打開新的增長空間。

從”低頻”到”高頻”的轉型挑戰

要實現使用頻率的提升，Airbnb需要改變衡量自身成功的指標。傳統上，OTA 主要關注AU（活躍用戶），但單一指標無法準確衡量每一用戶的使用頻率。因此，若要真正反映這一轉變，理論上以下指標會被關注：

·ARPW（Average Reservations Per Week, 每週平均預訂次數）——如果 Airbnb用戶使用頻率從”每年1-2次”提升到”每週1-2次”，增長52倍，理論上預訂次數也會隨之增長（雖然可能不到50倍）。

·WAU/YAU（週活用戶除以年活用戶）——目前數據應該很小，若Airbnb達成目標，應該接近於1。

·DAU/WAU（日活用戶除以週活用戶）——若用戶平均每週使用2次，則 DAU/WAU約為0.3，其中積極的用戶甚至可能每天都打開Airbnb，該數值將接近1。

這樣的變革在OTA行業前所未見，且執行難度極高。Chesky是真的要推動這樣的轉型，還是僅僅作為市場口號？海擇資本認為，Chesky確實談過一些口號，在IPO招股說明書談到的房地產長租行業，迄今沒有涉入；即便龐大的活動體驗市場已經被Viator、Klook做得風風火火，Airbnb現在也只做高單價、低庫存的一些難以量產化與複製的產品。去年所宣傳的特色體驗”傳奇（Icons）”，其實更像是限定版住宿，庫存量更稀缺，比如X-Mansion（X戰警主題房）與Haunt the Bettlejuice house（鬼屋）。

但我們認為這次不一樣。過去的口號是基於”戰術”而生的產品，戰術隨時可能基於運營現況與假設修正；現在是”戰略”上的需求，實務操作可能圍繞戰略修正戰術，但是戰略目的是不會改變的。

為什麼是本地生活，而不是其他模式？

若Airbnb真的想要做到每週被使用1-2次，它需要找到一個足夠高頻的應用場景。然而，目前常見的策略都存在問題：

·延伸短租產品品類（如小時房、工位租賃、年約長租…），雖然可能提升使用頻率，仍不足以達到每週使用標準。

·增加現有產品SKU數（如上架新房源、新體驗，讓用戶習慣瀏覽新產品），但仍不足以達到每週使用標準，而且用戶心智可能更容易倦怠。

·加入類媒體功能（如拓展至社交、旅行規劃、內容社群…），這種作法一般比較高頻，但Airbnb過去多次嘗試都未能成功，表明其基因不適合打造媒體社交平台。

相較之下，本地生活服務是最有可能支撐高頻次需求的模式。美團在中國的成功，證明餐飲、運動健身、休閒玩樂、超市百貨、美髮美甲等本地生活服務，能夠培養用戶的日常使用習慣。目前基於大語言模型的行程規劃，在搜尋本地語言資訊時，常常順手推送本地生活資訊，進而推動各式產品需求。Chesky也在近期強調，Airbnb的未來目標之一是提供”當地人在週末想做的獨特的事（for local to want to do unique things）”，並計劃每年都從旅行中最鄰近的地區（start with the nearest adjacencies around travel）開始，推出1-2個10億美元收入級別的新事業。

競爭環境帶動美加英法澳五國再滲透

與中國不同，美加英法澳五國並沒有”美團級”的全品類本地生活平台，而是由不同領域的數十家企業分割市場，不完全的舉例分別為：

·Eventbrite、Adrenaline…（本地活動預訂）

·Deliveroo、Just Eat…（外賣）

·Instacart、Uber Eats…（本地配送，但未涉足體驗類產品）

我們認為，Airbnb未來最大的潛在對手可能是Uber，但Uber目前仍未形成完整的本地生活生態。因此，Airbnb在這一市場仍然有機會建立一個更符合自身品牌定位的生態系，將”旅遊+本地生活”整合。

Airbnb”美團化”的終極形態？

目前Airbnb的痛點是”需求低頻”，用戶一年只用1-2次，因為它圍繞”異地住宿”和”旅遊體驗”展開。但如果它提供本地服務，讓用戶無需離開城市也能使用Airbnb，頻率自然會增加，這也是本地生活的核心價值，甚至還能與基於AI的旅行規畫結合，形成更完整的服務閉環。

餐飲事業或許會成為Airbnb切入本地生活的關鍵。這不意味它會雇用騎手、提供外賣服務，它可能更接近美團的”到店”服務，可能會與當地商家建立更深入的合作，比如推出限時優惠、建立點評體系、結合團購/支付/訂位…等等，提升消費者的一站式體驗。

經營本地生活還有另外一個好處。當五國客源習於在本地使用Airbnb的生活服務後，到了其他旅遊目的地後，一樣會使用該目的地的本地生活產品。Airbnb可以在鞏固目的地的供應商資源後，反過來撬動五國之外的各國客源，在用戶增長上事半功倍。也許這會是5-10年的事，中國從千團大戰到現在用了15年，美團甚至現在都還有具規模的新挑戰者（京東），這是一個機會與挑戰都長久存在的市場。

未來，Airbnb是否能成功實現”美團化”，關鍵在於它能否從供應鏈、支付體系以及商家合作開始，建立起一個完整的本地生活生態系統。如果Airbnb能夠有效運用AI更高ROI的完成目標，這場轉型或許真的有可能成功。但無論如何，這將是一場值得長期關注的變革。

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Haize Capital Insights of the Day

Will Airbnb Begin Its “Meituanization” in 2025?

Following the release of Airbnb’s 2024 Q4 earnings report, CEO Brian Chesky set an ambitious target: to increase the frequency of Airbnb app usage from “1-2 times per year” to “1-2 times per week.” This means Airbnb is aiming for a more than 50-fold increase in user engagement. If successful, this transformation would fundamentally reshape Airbnb’s business model, turning it from a short-term rental platform centered on travel into a high-frequency local lifestyle platform. This announcement led to a 14.5% surge in Airbnb’s stock price in a single day.

This goal sounds ambitious, but is it truly feasible—especially considering that no other OTA seems interested in setting such a target? What gives Airbnb the confidence to push for this transformation? Will it really embark on the path of becoming “the Meituan of the West”? Is local lifestyle the only possible direction for achieving this shift? Haize Capital explores these questions.

A Strong but Uneventful 2024 Q4 Earnings Report

Financially, Airbnb performed well in Q4 2024. The company recorded 111 million booked nights, a 12% year-over-year growth, marking the best quarterly performance of the year. Airbnb’s net income reached $460 million, demonstrating strong profitability, ample cash flow, and continued share buybacks to enhance shareholder value.

What makes this particularly impressive is the competitive landscape Airbnb faces. On one side, Booking.com has industrialized and standardized travel products at scale. On the other, Expedia remains profitable despite aggressive subsidies. Meanwhile, Trip.com (Ctrip) has deeply entrenched itself in emerging markets. Chesky, through strategic foresight, has navigated Airbnb’s survival between these giants while maintaining strong operational metrics and profitability.

A prime example of this adaptability occurred in early 2023 when Airbnb, anticipating the impact of inflation on consumer purchasing power, reintroduced single-room shared stays. Many had assumed that the era of travelers sharing accommodations with hosts or other guests—essentially a modernized hostel model—was over, yet it turned out to be a successful strategy. In the latter half of 2024, Expedia’s Vrbo realized the need to attract lower-budget customers and belatedly introduced unmanned serviced apartments—a move that still doesn’t match the affordability of Airbnb’s single-room offerings.

Now, Chesky faces a more profound challenge: user structure and market penetration. Currently, 70% of Airbnb’s bookings come from just five countries: the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France, and Australia. These markets have already reached high penetration, leaving little room for expansion. Additionally, Airbnb has long relied on brand-driven growth rather than performance-based advertising, meaning that while it attracts massive site traffic and active users, a significant portion of these visitors do not convert into bookings.

Thus, Chesky’s new strategy—increasing usage frequency—could be a solution to market saturation. If Airbnb can shift from a low-frequency to a high-frequency model, it may unlock new growth opportunities.

The Challenge of Transitioning from “Low-Frequency” to “High-Frequency”

To achieve higher user engagement, Airbnb must redefine how it measures success. Traditionally, OTAs focus on active users (AU), but a single metric cannot accurately reflect individual user frequency. To track this transformation effectively, the following indicators should be considered:

·ARPW (Average Reservations Per Week) – If Airbnb users increase their usage from “1-2 times per year” to “1-2 times per week,” this represents a 52-fold increase, and booking volume should theoretically rise accordingly (though likely not at a full 50x rate).

·WAU/YAU (Weekly Active Users / Yearly Active Users) – Currently, this metric is likely very low. If Airbnb reaches its goal, this ratio should approach 1.

·DAU/WAU (Daily Active Users / Weekly Active Users) – If users engage twice per week on average, DAU/WAU would be around 0.3. More active users who open Airbnb daily would drive this ratio closer to 1.

Such a transformation is unprecedented in the OTA industry and would be extremely challenging to implement. Is Chesky genuinely pushing for this transition, or is it merely a market slogan?

Haize Capital acknowledges that Chesky has made grand statements in the past. For example, he mentioned Airbnb’s entry into the long-term rental market in its IPO prospectus, but the company has yet to make a move in this space. Similarly, despite the booming activity experience market led by Viator and Klook, Airbnb has only focused on high-priced, low-inventory experiences that are difficult to scale and replicate.

For example, in 2023, Airbnb introduced “Icons,” which were positioned as unique, high-profile experiences—more akin to limited-edition stays rather than mass-market offerings. Listings like the X-Men Mansion or the Haunted Beetlejuice House were more about novelty than scalability.

However, we believe this time is different. Previous announcements were product-driven tactical moves, which could shift based on operational realities. This time, however, it is a strategic necessity. While execution may evolve, the overarching strategic goal will not change.

Why Local Lifestyle and Not Other Strategies?

If Airbnb truly aims to achieve 1-2 uses per week, it must identify a sufficiently high-frequency scenario. However, most conventional strategies have significant limitations:

·Expanding the scope of short-term rentals (e.g., hourly stays, coworking spaces, long-term leases) could improve engagement but is unlikely to reach weekly usage levels.

·Increasing SKU variety (e.g., adding more listings and experiences to encourage browsing) might help, but it does not guarantee weekly engagement and could lead to user fatigue.

·Incorporating media-like features (e.g., social networking, trip planning, community-driven content) is typically more engaging. However, Airbnb has repeatedly failed in social experiments, indicating it lacks the DNA to build a social media-style platform.

In contrast, local lifestyle services are the most viable option. Meituan’s success in China proves that food, fitness, entertainment, retail, beauty, and other services can cultivate habitual, high-frequency usage. Meanwhile, AI-powered trip planning is increasingly incorporating local lifestyle content, further driving demand for diverse product categories.

Chesky himself has recently stated that Airbnb’s future goal is to provide “unique things locals want to do on weekends” and that new ventures will start from adjacencies closest to travel—with the intention of launching 1-2 new $1 billion+ revenue businesses per year.

A Competitive Opportunity in the U.S., Canada, U.K., France, and Australia

Unlike China, where Meituan dominates, the five countries where Airbnb is strongest do not have a single comprehensive local services platform. Instead, dozens of companies divide the market across different verticals, including:

·Eventbrite, Adrenaline (local event bookings)

·Deliveroo, Just Eat (food delivery)

·Instacart, Uber Eats (local logistics, but not experience-driven)

We believe Uber is Airbnb’s biggest potential competitor in this space, but Uber has yet to establish a fully integrated local lifestyle ecosystem. This leaves room for Airbnb to combine travel and local experiences into a unified ecosystem.

The Endgame of Airbnb’s “Meituanization”

Currently, Airbnb’s biggest challenge is low-frequency demand—users engage only 1-2 times per year due to its focus on accommodations and travel experiences. By offering local services, Airbnb could become part of users’ daily lives without requiring travel, increasing engagement naturally. Additionally, AI-driven travel planning could integrate local lifestyle services, creating a complete ecosystem.

Food services might become Airbnb’s key entry point into local commerce, not through food delivery, but via an “in-store experience” model like Meituan’s. This could involve deep integration with local businesses, offering time-sensitive deals, a review system, and bundled services (reservations, payments, group buying, etc.).

Ultimately, Airbnb’s expansion into local services could reinforce its global user base, making it easier to replicate these offerings in destinations outside its core five markets. This long-term transformation could take 5-10 years, similar to China’s 15-year evolution from Groupon-style group buying to Meituan’s dominance.

Whether Airbnb can successfully execute this transformation depends on its ability to build a robust local ecosystem. If it can leverage AI to improve ROI, this shift may indeed become a reality. One thing is certain: this transition will be a long-term game worth watching.