2024年終結，日本人出境遊仍無轉機？
As 2024 Ends, Is There Still No Turnaround for Japanese Outbound Travel?

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

2024年終結，日本人出境遊仍無轉機？

疫情解封已逾兩年，日本人的出境遊市場是否已恢復？答案是否定的。相較於火熱的入境旅遊，2024年12月訪日外國人數達349萬人次，創下單月歷史新高，日本人的出境旅遊卻依舊低迷，恢復程度仍不足2019年同期的70%。本文將透過數據分析日本出境旅遊的現況，並探討其未來發展趨勢。

出境旅遊仍與2019年有顯著差距

根據日本政府觀光局（JNTO）的統計，2024年12月日本人的出國人數約為119萬人次，較2019年同期減少31%。

若將此數據與2024年12月日本43家主要旅行社的統計進行對比，可發現海外旅行交易額僅為1,049億日元，較2019年大幅下滑32%。交易額與人數的下降幅度基本相當，顯示日本人對海外旅行的需求依然低迷。

這意味著自2022年10月後疫情時期開國以來，已經過2年又3個月，日本人對海外旅行的意願仍低迷。值得注意的是，本次年末剛好能與2025年初結合成9天長假，但海外旅行需求的回升仍然有限。

跟團遊交易額下滑嚴重

如果說整體出境旅遊已經表現疲弱，那麼跟團遊的情況則更為嚴峻。進一步拆解43社數據，可以發現，日本人的海外團體旅遊情況比整體海外旅遊更加慘淡。海外團體遊的交易額僅剩131億日元，相較2019年的327億日元，暴跌60%。這意味著，疫情後日本人的出境遊習慣發生了根本性的變化，即便選擇海外旅遊，也更傾向於自由行，而非透過旅行社安排的團體行程。

跟團人次萎縮驚人

若進一步分析跟團遊的數據，會發現人次的萎縮更為驚人。從43社出境旅遊總人次來看，2024年12月的跟團出境遊人數僅3.4萬人，相較於2019年同期的13.0萬人，跌幅達74%。也就是說交易額跌幅還反映了境外產品的漲價要素，如果還原成人數，這才是日本人跟團出境遊的真實現況。

細分市場逆勢增長

儘管整體出境旅遊市場持續低迷，但部分細分市場卻展現了逆勢增長，特別是高端旅遊、郵輪旅遊與老年旅遊這三個市場，都各自有代表性公司取得遠超2019年的成績。但這些”局部繁榮”無法填補出境旅遊市場的巨大缺口，也無法改變整體低迷的現狀。

不過這也表明了，即便整體旅遊市場疲軟，仍有特定族群維持強勁需求，為業者提供新的發展方向。而如果將這三個細分領域取韋恩圖（Venn Diagram），我們認為三重交集處有龐大的老年族群，這或許與日本高齡化社會的發展，以及高資產退休族對高端旅遊產品的穩定需求有關。

匯率是關鍵因素

種種數據顯示，日本人的海外旅遊需求短期內難以復甦。許多業者將問題歸咎於消費習慣的改變、旅行模式的變化、疫後的心理影響，甚至還有歸咎於日本政府的國內旅遊促進政策，如”Go To Travel”，過大削弱了日本人出國旅遊的動機。但這些都只是表象，我們認為真正的核心問題在於日圓貶值。

日圓已較2019年大幅貶值，導致日本人海外旅遊的成本大幅上升。目前，赴歐美旅遊的費用相比2019年已上漲30%至50%，使得許多消費者選擇縮減海外旅遊預算，甚至改為僅在國內旅行。

這場疫情帶來的不只是短暫的衝擊，而是對日本出境旅遊市場結構的根本性重塑。未來，或許日本人的旅遊方式將進一步本土化，而傳統大規模的海外團體遊模式，可能將成為過去的歷史，代之而起的是細分市場的主題團隊遊。

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Haize Capital Insights of the Day

As 2024 Ends, Is There Still No Turnaround for Japanese Outbound Travel?

More than two years have passed since Japan reopened its borders after the pandemic. Has the outbound travel market recovered? The answer remains no. In stark contrast to the booming inbound tourism sector, which saw a record-breaking 3.49 million foreign visitors to Japan in December 2024, outbound travel remains sluggish, with recovery still falling short of 70% of the December 2019 level. This article examines the current state of Japan’s outbound travel market through data analysis and explores its future trends.

Outbound Travel Still Lags Far Behind 2019 Levels

According to data from the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), 1.19 million Japanese travelers went abroad in December 2024, a 31% decline compared to the same period in 2019.

When comparing this figure with the December 2024 report of Japan’s 43 major travel agencies, it is evident that outbound travel transactions amounted to only 104.9 billion yen, a 32% drop compared to 2019. The decline in transaction volume aligns closely with the decline in the number of outbound travelers, indicating that Japanese demand for overseas travel remains weak.

This suggests that even after 2 years and 3 months since Japan reopened its borders in October 2022, Japanese enthusiasm for overseas travel has not rebounded. Notably, despite the opportunity to combine the year-end and New Year holidays into a 9-day long vacation, demand for outbound travel remained limited.

Group Tour Sales Have Declined Even More Sharply

If overall outbound travel is already struggling, the situation for group tours is even worse. A detailed breakdown of data from the 43 major travel agencies reveals that Japanese overseas group travel has suffered far more than independent travel.

The transaction volume of overseas group tours in December 2024 was just 13.1 billion yen, a staggering 60% drop from the 32.7 billion yen recorded in 2019.

This dramatic decline indicates a fundamental shift in Japanese travel habits post-pandemic. Even among those who choose to travel abroad, an increasing number prefer independent travel over traditional group tours arranged by travel agencies.

Group Tour Participation Has Shrunk Drastically

Further analysis of group tour data reveals an even more concerning trend—the number of participants has plummeted. According to the 43 major travel agencies, the number of Japanese travelers joining overseas group tours in December 2024 was only 34,000, compared to 130,000 in December 2019, representing a 74% decline.

While the decrease in transaction volume partially reflects higher prices for international travel products, the severe drop in participant numbers highlights the true reality of Japan’s group outbound travel market.

Niche Markets Show Resilience

Despite the overall downturn in outbound travel, some niche markets have shown counter-trend growth. In particular, luxury travel, cruise travel, and senior travel have seen specific companies outperform their 2019 levels.

However, these pockets of success cannot compensate for the massive decline in the overall outbound travel market, nor can they reverse the broader trend of stagnation.

That said, these resilient segments indicate that certain demographic groups still maintain strong demand, providing potential growth areas for industry players. If we visualize these three niche segments in a Venn diagram, we believe that the key intersection lies in the senior demographic. This aligns with Japan’s aging society and the high-spending power of affluent retirees, who continue to prioritize high-quality travel experiences.

Exchange Rates Are the Core Issue

Various data points suggest that Japan’s outbound travel demand will struggle to recover in the short term. While many industry players attribute the decline to changing consumer habits, evolving travel preferences, and post-pandemic psychological shifts, others blame government policies like “Go To Travel,” which heavily incentivized domestic travel at the expense of outbound travel.

However, we believe that these are merely surface-level factors—the real root cause is the depreciation of the Japanese yen.

Compared to 2019, the yen has weakened significantly, leading to a sharp rise in the cost of international travel for Japanese consumers.

Currently, the cost of a trip to Europe or the U.S. is 30% to 50% higher than in 2019, forcing many travelers to cut back on international trips or opt for domestic travel instead.

A Structural Shift in Japan’s Outbound Travel Market

The pandemic’s impact on Japanese outbound travel has not just been a temporary shock—it has fundamentally reshaped the market structure.

Going forward, Japanese travel behavior may become even more domestically focused, while large-scale overseas group tours could become a relic of the past. Instead, smaller, themed group tours catering to specific interests and demographics may emerge as the dominant trend in the industry.