Booking 2024Q4：AI佈局秀開始
Booking 2024Q4: The AI Strategy Show Begins

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

Booking 2024Q4：AI佈局秀開始

在 2024Q4 財報電話會議上，Booking 展現了對生成式AI（GenAI）的高度重視，甚至到了讓人誤以為參加的是OpenAI或DeepSeek的技術會議，而非OTA 巨頭的業績發布會。如果說諸葛亮在”隆中對”中的剖析，展現了以西蜀定位對維持三國格局的策略，這場會議既可稱為Glenn Fogel的”AI對”，也可以視為AI佈局秀，展現了Booking作為OTA領導者，如何在生成式AI時代維持市場霸主地位的戰略。這不僅是企業應對技術變革的策略，更體現了對行業未來方向的深思熟慮。

財務表現：持續增長的印鈔機

在2024Q4，Booking交出了超乎預期的成績單，進一步鞏固其作為”印鈔機”的地位，並且是印鈔速度更快的那一台。單季營業利潤突破17.3億美元，間夜數達2.6億，年增長率13.2%，這一數字在歐美OTA三巨頭（Booking、Airbnb、Expedia）中位列第一。歐洲市場依舊是Booking的關鍵支柱，該地區的間夜量占全年總間夜量的50%，約6億間夜。只要歐洲市場的統治地位不變，Booking 在全球OTA市場的主導權便難以被撼動。

AI賦能供應商也維護利益

Booking在供應商層面，談到了很多協助中小型（酒店供應商）業者提升競爭力的方式，強調透過生成式AI與機器學習技術，Booking能使其獲得過去僅大型連鎖酒店才擁有的技術支持。這些技術應用涵蓋智能定價、收益管理、自動化客服、內容優化、市場趨勢分析與個人化行銷…等等。

Glenn形容Booking在用AI支持供應商的目標，是讓合作夥伴知道他們”正在與一位受人尊敬、深諳AI的夥伴合作（It's working with a very respected partner who knows a lot about AI. We know a lot about the travel industry）”。但如果去掉這層委婉語氣，實際上這句話的潛台詞是：中小型酒店不必擔心技術落後、無法與五星級連鎖酒店競爭，只要加入Booking，並給到足夠的佣金，就能在AI 時代繼續賣貨。

AI重新定義客服與IT運營

除了支持供應商，Booking也與眾多OTA相同，將AI技術應用於IT與客服領域。

技術層面上，AI提升了技術開發效率，使工程師能在相同時間內完成更多任務，進而加速產品創新與功能優化。

在客服領域，AI則帶來了更顯著的影響，透過自動化摘要與即時應對，大幅縮短客戶等待時間，用戶不再需要長時間等待客服接聽，不僅提升了用戶體驗，也降低了客服運營成本。

傳統上，客服呼叫中心的Service Level（服務水準）是衡量客戶服務效率和回應速度的重要指標，通常以在一定時間內接聽的來電比例來表示。而過去要提高 Service Level，往往需要增加人力，並依賴管理者精準預測需求高峰、安排排班與降低招聘成本來優化數據。現在，這些工作由AI低成本地完成，甚至可以延伸到分銷渠道，如OpenTable用以進一步提升與供應商的互動。

組織變革與成本優化

與許多企業透過AI降本增效但不裁員的策略不同，Booking的做法更為激進。在2024年11月，公司宣布進行包括裁員的組織變革，在本次電話會議，則詳細闡述結合AI對組織結構與營運模式的深入調整方式。

Booking預計將投入1.7億美元於轉型計畫，並期望在2025年就節省1.5億美元 成本，主要來自於：流程與系統的現代化、裁員、採購優化以及不動產成本縮減（減少物理空間/重新談判租約/業務遷移至低成本地區/提高遠端辦公比例…）。Booking認為這不只是技術上的升級，而是AI促成的結構性變革，將進一步提升Booking的盈利能力。

一站式旅行服務的較量

海擇資本認為，AI佈局也將影響Booking與攜程（Trip.com）的競爭關係。儘管 Booking的市值約為攜程的3倍，但業界普遍認為，攜程在機票聯程運算與票務管理上的技術更為領先，並透過全球票台佈局建立兼具價格與服務體驗的競爭優勢。

Booking近年推動Connected Trip，試圖構建一個完整的數位旅行顧問，讓用戶能夠在Booking平台內完成所有旅行規劃。近期所談的口袋裡的旅行社（travel agent in your pocket），概念與攜程的一站式服務模式一致，但在住宿以外的領域，Booking的執行力仍有提升空間。

然而，Booking在Q4的機票出票量創下近五季新高，增幅達52%，高於Q3旺季的39%，以及全年年增率38%。這是否意味技術突破帶動新的奇點？AI能否縮小Booking與攜程在票務的技術差距？值得關注。

”AI對”的真正意圖

Booking在這次財報會議上異常高調地強調AI，不僅展示了其技術能力，更隱含著多層次的戰略考量。從競爭格局、市場定位到投資人信心管理，Booking 以AI作為話語權的核心工具，傳遞了一個明確的訊號：AI將成為決定OTA行業未來競爭格局的關鍵，而Booking已經準備好站上浪潮的頂端。

首先，這是對競爭對手的施壓。Glenn在會議上反覆強調Booking在AI領域的投入，意圖塑造Booking作為AI旅遊時代領先者的形象。他甚至強調Booking已經接受歐盟”人工智慧法案（Artificial Intelligence Act）”的監管，這不僅展現了Booking的合規能力，也暗示同行業者即便現在開始追趕，也將面臨更高的監管與技術門檻。在這種情況下，競爭對手即便加快AI轉型，能動用的資金也不如Booking。

其次，這是對投資人的信心管理。1600億美元市值的Booking，正在竭力壓制投資人將2025比擬為2000互聯網元年，對新創公司狂熱悸動的心。近來，資本市場對OTA的增長空間產生質疑，尤其Booking的GMV預測顯示，2025Q1的增速僅5%-7%，相較於過去幾年的高成長，無疑會再次引發市場擔憂。

Glenn的市場敘事邏輯

Glenn選擇在此時高調宣示AI佈局，正是為了降低投資人對Booking成長潛力放緩的疑慮。誠如我們此前所說，旅行行業不外乎在客源與資源上的比拚，即便是再強的AI旅遊新創，一樣必須在這樣的比拚中勝出。

Glenn對市場的敘事邏輯是，目前AI產品（如Priceline的AI助手Penny）確實尚未帶來實質收入，但長遠來看，Booking擁有的規模、數據與AI賦能的供應鏈，使其具備更強的競爭力。

在客源層面，也許新創公司在客源獲取面，能有先發優勢，能更低成本的取得客源，但如果精算到盈利層面，Booking就可能因為超低的邊際成本/費用，因為損益平衡點低於競爭對手而勝出。

更關鍵的是資源層面。Glenn這次用大量篇幅談論AI如何協助供應商提升效率，其意圖不只是讓市場相信Booking能幫助中小酒店提升競爭力，更是在強調Booking在供應鏈中的核心價值不會被削弱，甚至可能進一步擴張。即便AI旅遊新創企業能夠更低成本地與高星連鎖酒店簽約，廣大市場還有海量的單體、傳統、對AI不理解的中小供應商，只有Booking有能力跟它們拿到好的價格。這意味著，即便未來AI旅遊工具如雨後春筍般出現，無論它們是跟Booking簽約，或是套用ChatGPT/Gemini/Claude語言模型內建的旅遊開發工具，最終都是使用Booking的API來存取價格與庫存，而這正是Booking保持市場主導權的關鍵策略。

簡而言之，Booking這場AI佈局秀，與其定位為技術上的突破，不如說是商業、競爭與市場信心三者合一的表演，如同諸葛亮對劉備三顧茅廬的表演。

Glenn的說法，不會每個人都認。不管認不認，未來2-3年將是關鍵驗證期。

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Haize Capital Insights of the Day

Booking 2024Q4: The AI Strategy Show Begins

During the 2024 Q4 earnings call, Booking demonstrated an extraordinary emphasis on Generative AI (GenAI), to the point where one might mistake it for a technical conference hosted by OpenAI or DeepSeek, rather than an earnings briefing from a leading OTA giant. If Zhuge Liang’s “Longzhong Plan” was a strategic analysis of how Shu could position itself within the Three Kingdoms, then this conference could well be called Glenn Fogel’s “AI Strategy Plan”, or more accurately, an AI Strategy Show, displaying how Booking, as the dominant force in the OTA industry, plans to maintain its market leadership in the GenAI era. This is not merely a corporate response to technological change; it is a deeply thought-out blueprint for the industry's future.

Financial Performance: The Ever-Growing Money Machine

In Q4 2024, Booking delivered outstanding financial results, further solidifying its reputation as a "money-printing machine"—and an increasingly efficient one at that. The company posted an operating profit exceeding $1.73 billion, with room nights reaching 260 million, up 13.2% year-over-year, making it the fastest-growing among the big three OTAs (Booking, Airbnb, and Expedia). Europe remains Booking’s backbone, accounting for 50% of its total annual room nights—approximately 600 million room nights. As long as this dominance in Europe remains, Booking’s global OTA leadership will remain unshakable.

AI as Both Supplier Empowerment and Market Control

On the supplier side, Booking highlighted multiple ways it is helping small and medium-sized hotel operators stay competitive, leveraging GenAI and machine learning to provide them with technological advantages previously available only to major hotel chains. These AI-driven applications include smart pricing, revenue management, automated customer service, content optimization, market trend analysis, and personalized marketing.

Glenn Fogel described Booking’s AI strategy as ensuring that partners feel they are working with a highly respected, AI-savvy company:

“It’s working with a very respected partner who knows a lot about AI. We know a lot about the travel industry.”

However, if we strip away the diplomatic phrasing, the underlying message is clear: small and medium-sized hotels don’t need to worry about lagging behind major hotel chains in technology—just join Booking, pay a sufficient commission, and you’ll still thrive in the AI era.

AI Redefining Customer Service & IT Operations

Beyond supplier support, Booking—like many OTAs—is also heavily investing in AI for IT and customer service.

· On the technical side, AI boosts development efficiency, allowing engineers to complete more tasks in the same timeframe, accelerating product innovation and feature enhancements.

· In customer service, the impact is even more significant. AI reduces wait times by automating responses and summarizing interactions, ensuring that users no longer have to endure long hold times, enhancing customer experience while cutting operational costs.

Traditionally, Service Level (SL) in call centers—which measures the percentage of calls answered within a set timeframe—could only be improved by hiring more staff and optimizing workforce scheduling. Now, AI can handle this at a lower cost while extending its reach to distribution channels, such as OpenTable, to further enhance supplier interactions.

Structural Transformation and Cost Optimization

Unlike companies that use AI to optimize costs without layoffs, Booking is taking a more aggressive approach.

In November 2024, the company announced a major restructuring, including workforce reductions, which were further elaborated on during the earnings call. Booking plans to invest $170 million into its transformation initiatives, expecting to save $150 million in 2025 through:

· Process and system modernization

· Workforce reductions

· Procurement optimization

· Real estate cost reduction (downsizing office spaces, renegotiating leases, relocating operations to lower-cost regions, and increasing remote work adoption)

Booking frames this not just as a technical upgrade but as an AI-driven structural shift, aimed at enhancing long-term profitability.

The Battle for One-Stop Travel Services

Haize Capital believes that AI will also impact the competitive dynamics between Booking and Trip.com (Ctrip).

Although Booking’s market cap is roughly three times that of Trip.com, many industry insiders acknowledge Trip.com’s technological edge in flight ticketing algorithms and global GDS integration, which grants it a competitive advantage in both pricing and service quality.

Booking has been pushing its Connected Trip initiative, aiming to create a fully integrated digital travel assistant, allowing users to plan and book their entire trip within the Booking ecosystem. The recent “travel agent in your pocket” concept closely resembles Trip.com’s one-stop service model, but Booking’s execution outside the accommodation sector still has room for improvement.

However, Booking’s Q4 flight ticket sales surged 52%, setting a five-quarter high—surpassing even the Q3 peak season growth of 39% and the full-year growth rate of 38%. This raises the question:

Is this a sign of a technological breakthrough? Can AI help Booking narrow the gap with Trip.com in flight ticketing?

The Real Intent Behind the “AI Strategy Plan”

Booking’s high-profile AI emphasis in this earnings call is not just about showcasing technological capabilities—it carries multi-layered strategic implications. From competitive positioning to investor confidence management, Booking is using AI as its central narrative, signaling one clear message:

AI will determine the future of the OTA industry, and Booking is ready to lead the charge.

1. Competitive Pressure: Glenn repeatedly stressed Booking’s AI investments, positioning the company as the leader in AI-driven travel innovation. He even emphasized that Booking has already adapted to the EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act, indirectly implying that competitors lagging behind will face even greater regulatory and technical hurdles. In such a scenario, even if rivals accelerate their AI adoption, their available capital won’t match Booking’s scale.

2. Investor Confidence Management: With a $160 billion market cap, Booking is determined to dissuade investors from viewing 2025 as the “dot-com bubble 2.0” for travel AI startups. Recently, OTA growth potential has been questioned, especially given Booking’s forecast of only 5%-7% GMV growth in Q1 2025—a sharp contrast to previous years’ high growth rates.

Glenn’s Narrative for the Market

Glenn’s strategic timing for this AI showcase is deliberate—to counter investor concerns about Booking’s slowing growth trajectory. As we’ve previously stated, the travel industry ultimately competes on two fronts: customer acquisition and supplier control.

· On customer acquisition, AI startups may initially gain an edge in user acquisition costs, but Booking’s lower marginal costs could allow it to outcompete on profitability.

· On supplier resources, Booking’s AI-powered supplier support isn’t just about helping hotels thrive—it’s about reinforcing Booking’s dominant role in the supply chain. Even if AI travel startups can sign deals with major hotel chains, millions of independent hotels and traditional small operators remain largely dependent on Booking.

In short, even if future AI travel tools proliferate, most will still rely on Booking’s APIs for pricing and inventory access, ensuring Booking retains its market control.

Thus, this AI Strategy Show isn’t just about technology—it’s a grand performance combining business strategy, competitive positioning, and investor reassurance.

Much like Zhuge Liang’s Longzhong Plan, Glenn Fogel’s AI Strategy Plan is a high-stakes move.

Not everyone will buy into it—but the next 2-3 years will be the true test.