登錄
選單
登錄
海擇短評 Haize Comment：
攜程落隊？
在2024Q4財報電話會議中，Booking著重談論如何透過AI提升供應商效率，而攜程則更關注如何讓消費者對其AI產品產生更深的黏性。然而，財報公布後，攜程股價當日大跌11.4%。股價下跌的主要原因，可能來自市場對攜程行銷支出的擔憂、AI戰略的可行性、以及國際市場拓展的不確定性。然而，這些擔憂是否真的構成長期風險？海擇資本嘗試進一步拆解財務數據和市場策略並說明之。
財務增長不差，行銷費用真的構成問題？
從數據來看，攜程2024Q4的財務表現仍具韌性。收入同比增長23.5%，達 127.7億人民幣，成為全球主要OTA中增速最佳的企業。同時，運營利潤為 23.0億人民幣（約3.2億美元），雖然僅錄得小幅同比增長，但仍保持穩健。
市場對攜程的擔憂，主要來自於過高的行銷支出。Q4單季行銷費用達33.7億人民幣，與Q3的33.8億相比僅下降1,000萬人民幣（3‰），但因Q4屬於旅遊淡季，收入較Q3低20%，因此行銷費用佔比相對升高。然而，這是否真的構成結構性問題？
我們認為，這不應被過度解讀。攜程的行銷費用具備較強的調整彈性，可依據ROI靈活收放，這意味著在需要控制成本時，攜程仍能維持一定的盈利能力。相較於行銷支出，我們認為更值得關注的是：
·與歐美企業相比，中國企業因政策環境不同，在AI變革期較難進行激進裁員或不動產優化，因此短期內，攜程的獲利增速可能無法與歐美同業同步提升。
·短期關鍵在於增長速度是否能快到抵銷成本影響，亦即能以”不增員”來淡化”不裁員”的影響。
目前來看，攜程的核心業務增長仍具韌性，Trip.com Brand的機票和酒店預訂量同比增長超過70%，集團合併報表的交通與住宿業務同比增長分別為16%與33%。這顯示，攜程的市場拓展策略仍具成效。
短期內，市場可能仍會對行銷支出保持警惕，但如果攜程能夠在AI與國際市場增長上持續優化，這部分疑慮將逐漸淡化。
三條萬億人民幣賽道：銀髮族、年輕人與入境遊
攜程在這次財報中，明確強調了三大消費族群的增長潛力：中國銀髮族、中國年輕人娛樂+旅行、入境遊三個市場。這些市場確實具有較大的增長空間，在中國市場尤為明顯。
銀髮族市場：專為50歲以上旅客量身打造產品
攜程認為中國即將迎來超過1億人的健康活躍（未失能）老年旅客，這群消費者的購買力高於平均水準30%，市場規模可達1萬億元人民幣。攜程推出Old Friends Club計劃，提供超過7,000種旅遊產品，涵蓋精品酒店、溫泉、郵輪等。這部分的挑戰在於，老年旅客對價格敏感度高，忠誠度是否足夠形成長期穩固的市場壁壘。
年輕人娛樂+旅行：短視頻平台的挑戰
年輕族群的旅遊習慣也在改變，他們更傾向於結合娛樂與旅行，攜程希望透過”娛樂+旅行”來吸引年輕消費者，滿足社交需求與沉浸式體驗。若依據中國文化和旅遊部所公告，2024年國內出遊人次56.15億、國內旅遊5.75萬億，從中推估年輕人占比，這也是一個萬億級別的市場規模。這部分的挑戰在於，短視頻平台（如抖音、小紅書）已經成為年輕人旅遊決策的重要入口，這是否會降低攜程的導流能力。
入境遊市場：政策紅利與挑戰並存
中國政府近期對外國遊客的簽證政策放寬，過境簽證延長至240小時，適用前提（可於過境時向邊防申請臨時入境）、適用城市（24省）、可停留區域（6處為全省）以及免簽證國家，都大幅放寬。相對於多數國家，過境簽多半在96小時內，或需要提前申請類似ESTA等電子簽，中國在入境上的做法，大大提高旅客”說走就走”的可行性。按照攜程梁建章以GDP比例衡量潛在市場的模型，若以GDP的1.5%計算入境遊市場規模，這是一條超過1.4萬億人民幣的賽道。這部分的挑戰在於，支付與服務體驗如何快速匹配外國遊客需求。
整體來說，這三條市場賽道都有潛力。相對於Trip.com國際平台在集團合併收入占比達兩位數，這三條賽道對攜程貢獻處於相對早期，但一如Booking的Connected Trip、Airbnb的本地生活事業、Expedia在MCN的投資，提供給投資人對下一程的切入點，可以觀察競爭優勢是否能夠轉化為實際盈利能力。
攜程的AI戰略：多角度強化C端消費者體驗
相較於Booking著重於以AI提升供應商效率，攜程對外說明的AI佈局則更偏向C端消費者體驗，並推出了一系列AI工具來提升個人化服務與用戶黏性：
· 攜程榜單（Trip Best）：基於用戶評論的POI排行榜，類似大數據版的”米其林指南（Michelin Guide）” 。
· 特價/演出/展覽…（Trip Trends / Trip Deals / Trip Events）：基於即時數據優化推薦，讓用戶獲得更具個人化的價格與選擇。
· 線路規劃（Itinerary）：可自動生成且可分享的互動式旅行計劃。
· TripGenie：語音AI助手，可提供個性化行程建議、異動提醒，讓用戶不再依賴傳統搜尋。
如同Glenn Fogel，梁建章在電話會議也回應了AI新創是否會取代OTA的問題。他所回應的原話是， AI代理不會取代OTA。相反，它們將與我們形成互補關係，取代傳統搜尋引擎，成為主要的流量入口，為OTA開啟新的客戶獲取渠道（AI agents will not replace OTAs. Instead, they will complement us. They are likely to replace traditional search engines as primary entry points for traffic, opening new customer acquisition channels for OTAs）。而Trip.com提供AI新創無法單靠自己成功的價值，特別體現在：首先，攜程擁有廣泛且即時的專屬旅遊數據洞察…其次，攜程的端到端服務模式與開放平台策略，使我們能夠根據不同客戶的需求，提供具有競爭力的服務標準與價格（Trip.com provides value that AI alone cannot replicate, particularly in 2 areas. Firstly, our extensive real-time proprietary travel insights are key to delivering accurate and personalized travel recommendations. Secondly, our end-to-end service model and open platform approach enable us to offer competitive service standards and pricing tailored to diverse customer preferences.）。
我們從資本的角度簡化，梁建章想表達的觀點是，AI新創最終還是會遇到變現問題，結合攜程的用戶洞察與交易能力，是AI新創最能活下來的方式；所以，AI新創與攜程不是互斥，是互補，而且互補時，攜程能提供的價值更大。
我們將旅遊領域的AI應用切分為三條軸線：X軸是在各細分領域縱向發展的AI，比如在機票領域的如退改簽、行李追蹤、航班異動…這部分有些AI已經成熟或可以很快成熟，在沒有AI以前也能做得很好，通過AI能更自動化、更實時。Y軸是各細分領域橫向發展的AI，比如價格比對、內容彙整，OTA的開放平台固然提供價格與庫存，但過往沒有流量無法變現的低價產品，現在也會被AI搜出來，未來攜程的挑戰是，開放平台要開放到什麼程度，如果酒店供應商心智大開，在官網放價格倒掛的低價，有可能變成酒店版的航司直銷，影響會大，但酒店遠比航司分散，大環境好很多。Z軸是能取得用戶完整使用習慣的AI，Gemini/ChatGPT/DeepSeek可能是典型，這類公司會更容易與OTA合作，因為在內部，旅遊項目的優先級永遠不會是最高，無法取得內部優勢資源，這類似按照Uber的優先級排序，本地服務到現在都不斷有新項目可以在ROI超過異地旅遊；ChatGPT的旅遊服務Operator萬眾期待，但難堪使用，就是很好的例子。
在旅遊領域AI應用百花齊放的未來，攜程要完整地把這三條軸線的AI應用整合進APP，並不能單靠投資/收購的交易，還必須對產品有理解，能分辨哪些AI要收購、哪些AI業務只需要業務合作、哪些AI放著不管也無所謂、哪些之前放著不管的需要調整權重。中國是技術人才江山輩出的環境，會比歐美同業更快遇到愈多挑戰，我們理解這是攜程新任命集團首席產品官陳剛的原因。這些問題所有OTA都會遇到，Booking跟Expedia的AI Agent雖然目前是單純引導到住宿預訂，但我們認為遲早會往攜程的方向改，但估計得要有具體數據由下向上反饋才能改，這畢竟是比較大的戰術變動。梁建章自己是懂技術的董事會主席，在技術投入能有先發能力，這也是攜程的優勢。
攜程的”圖王”企圖心仍在
攜程真的落隊了嗎？短期股價的波動，是市場情緒、資金流向，甚至量化交易的結果，這是神或是”幻方量化”關心的事，我們無法從日內漲跌判斷企業的長期競爭力。然而，從財務表現、產品創新、AI佈局與全球化戰略來看，攜程仍然展現出比歐美同業更高的增長動能。
我們看到的是，攜程的企圖心尚未減弱。攜程加入聯合國全球契約（UNGC, United Nations Global Compact），便是其全球化戰略的一環。UNGC作為全球最大企業可持續發展倡議，並非單純的ESG公關動作，而是代表企業對可持續發展的長期承諾。企業選擇投入CSR，往往是基於未來的市場預期，就如同不計劃進入歐盟市場的企業，通常不會投入大量資源做ESG合規。同理，攜程參與 UNGC，意味著其對東北亞、東南亞以外市場仍懷有強烈的擴張野心。
這不只是紙上談兵，攜程的國際化方向，也與當前地緣政治環境高度契合。”一帶一路”這個詞或許已經無法讓資本市場興奮，但在川普回歸進行MAGA的當下，阿拉伯國家也正試圖重塑自身的全球影響力。特別是沙特，我們認為也正在積極推動”讓阿拉伯人再次偉大”，這與中國企業的出海戰略存在高度共鳴。在這場變局中，攜程（也許加上美團）或許會成為關鍵的參與者。
相較於我們之前談到 Airbnb 的”美團化”，我們認為AI競爭帶來的市場變革，可能會在未來兩年內顯現端倪。攜程是否真正落隊？也許很快可以驗證。
-----
Haize Capital Insights of the Day
Has Trip.com Fallen Behind?
In the Q4 2024 earnings call, Booking Holdings focused on leveraging AI to enhance supplier efficiency, whereas Trip.com placed more emphasis on deepening consumer engagement with its AI-driven products. However, following the earnings release, Trip.com’s stock plunged 11.4% in a single day. The sharp decline may be attributed to concerns over Trip.com’s marketing expenses, the feasibility of its AI strategy, and uncertainties in its international expansion. But do these concerns genuinely pose a long-term risk? Haize Capital attempts to break down the financial data and strategic outlook to explore this issue further.
Financial Growth is Strong—But is Marketing Expense a Real Problem?
From a financial standpoint, Trip.com delivered resilient results in Q4 2024. Revenue grew 23.5% YoY, reaching RMB 12.77 billion, making it the fastest-growing major OTA globally. Meanwhile, operating profit stood at RMB 2.3 billion (approximately $320 million), showing slight YoY growth but maintaining stability.
The market’s primary concern revolves around Trip.com’s high marketing expenses. In Q4, marketing expenditure amounted to RMB 3.37 billion, a minimal reduction from RMB 3.38 billion in Q3 (only a RMB 10 million or 0.3% decrease). However, since Q4 is a travel off-season, revenue was 20% lower than Q3, making the proportion of marketing expenses appear higher. Does this indicate a structural problem?
We believe this concern may be overstated. Trip.com’s marketing costs are highly flexible and can be adjusted based on ROI considerations, ensuring profitability when needed. Instead of marketing expenditure itself, we believe two factors are more critical:
·Unlike Western companies, Chinese firms face different policy environments, making aggressive layoffs or real estate restructuring difficult during the AI transformation. As a result, Trip.com’s profitability growth may not keep pace with Western peers in the short term.
·The key short-term question is whether growth can offset cost pressures—in other words, whether Trip.com can sustain expansion without increasing headcount, thereby reducing the need for cost-cutting measures.
For now, Trip.com’s core business remains strong. Its Trip.com Brand saw air ticket and hotel bookings grow over 70% YoY, while its group-wide transportation and accommodation businesses grew by 16% and 33% YoY, respectively. This indicates that Trip.com’s expansion strategy remains effective.
In the short term, the market may continue to scrutinize marketing spending, but if Trip.com successfully optimizes AI adoption and international market growth, these concerns should gradually subside.
Three Trillion-Yuan Market Opportunities: Senior Travelers, Young Consumers, and Inbound Tourism
In this earnings report, Trip.com highlighted three major growth segments:
·Senior travelers
·Young consumers (entertainment + travel)
·Inbound tourism
Each of these markets presents significant growth potential, especially in China.
Senior Traveler Market: Tailored Products for the 50+ Age Group
Trip.com estimates that China will soon have over 100 million active and healthy senior travelers (those without disabilities). This demographic’s spending power is 30% higher than the average consumer, and the market potential could exceed RMB 1 trillion. Trip.com has launched the Old Friends Club, offering over 7,000 travel products, including boutique hotels, hot springs, and cruises.
However, a key challenge remains: senior travelers tend to be price-sensitive, raising doubts about whether this segment can build a long-term revenue moat.
Young Consumers: Entertainment + Travel, Facing Competition from Short-Video Platforms
Younger travelers are shifting their habits—they are increasingly blending entertainment and travel. Trip.com is leveraging this trend through its "Entertainment + Travel" initiative, catering to social engagement and immersive experiences.
According to China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism, in 2024, domestic travel is projected to reach 5.615 billion trips, generating RMB 5.75 trillion in tourism revenue. If we estimate the share of young travelers, this could be another trillion-yuan market opportunity.
However, the challenge lies in traffic acquisition. Short-video platforms (Douyin, Xiaohongshu, etc.) have become critical travel decision-making platforms for young consumers. If these platforms continue to control discovery and inspiration, it could reduce Trip.com’s direct traffic acquisition ability.
Inbound Tourism Market: Policy Boosts, but Execution Challenges Remain
China has significantly eased its visa policies for foreign tourists:
·Transit visa extensions up to 240 hours
·Visa-free access expanded to more countries
·More provinces and cities added to transit visa programs
Compared to other countries, where transit visas typically last only 96 hours or require pre-approval (such as the ESTA system), China’s more flexible policy greatly enhances its "spur-of-the-moment" travel appeal.
According to Trip.com Chairman Liang Jianzhang, if inbound tourism contributes 1.5% of China’s GDP, this would create a RMB 1.4 trillion market. However, challenges remain in payment systems, language support, and service standardization for foreign travelers.
Overall, these three market segments hold great potential. While Trip.com’s international platform already accounts for a significant share of its revenue, these segments are still in the early stages of contributing to overall growth. Much like Booking’s "Connected Trip," Airbnb’s local experiences, and Expedia’s investment in MCN (multi-channel networks), these are strategic bets on the future. The key question is whether Trip.com can convert these growth drivers into tangible profitability.
Trip.com’s AI Strategy: A Consumer-Focused Approach
Unlike Booking, which focuses on AI-driven supplier efficiency, Trip.com has positioned AI as a tool to enhance consumer engagement. It has introduced several AI-powered features:
·Trip Best: AI-curated rankings based on user reviews, similar to a data-driven Michelin Guide.
·Trip Trends / Trip Deals / Trip Events: Real-time AI-driven pricing and event recommendations.
·Itinerary Planning: AI-generated interactive travel plans.
·TripGenie: AI voice assistant for real-time travel recommendations and itinerary adjustments.
In response to concerns about AI startups potentially disrupting OTAs, Trip.com Chairman Liang Jianzhang stated:
"AI agents will not replace OTAs. Instead, they will complement us. They are likely to replace traditional search engines as primary entry points for traffic, opening new customer acquisition channels for OTAs."
Liang further emphasized that Trip.com provides value that AI alone cannot replicate, particularly in:
1. Proprietary real-time travel data, ensuring accurate, personalized recommendations.
2. End-to-end service integration, ensuring a seamless booking-to-service experience that AI-only platforms cannot match.
We interpret Liang’s perspective as follows: AI startups will struggle with monetization. Their best path to survival is partnering with established OTAs like Trip.com. In other words, AI startups and Trip.com are not competitors but complementary players—and Trip.com holds the stronger position in this dynamic.
We categorize AI applications in the travel industry into three axes:
·X-axis: Vertical AI development within specific segments – For example, in the air ticketing sector, AI can automate refund processing, baggage tracking, and flight disruption alerts. Many of these functions were already operational before AI, but AI enables greater automation, real-time processing, and efficiency improvements.
·Y-axis: Horizontal AI development across different segments – AI is reshaping price comparison and content aggregation. OTAs’ open platforms have traditionally offered extensive pricing and inventory options, but many low-priced products struggled to gain visibility due to limited traffic. AI is now surfacing these hidden deals, raising a new challenge for Trip.com—how much should it open its platform? If hotels start undercutting OTA prices on their direct websites, it could lead to an airline direct-sale model in the hotel sector. This would be disruptive, but hotels are far more fragmented than airlines, making it a more manageable risk.
·Z-axis: AI-driven consumer habit acquisition – Companies like Gemini, ChatGPT, and DeepSeek exemplify this approach. These companies are more inclined to collaborate with OTAs because, internally, travel projects will never rank as a top priority in their product roadmaps. This is similar to Uber's prioritization of local services over long-haul travel—new projects with higher ROI will always take precedence. The hyped-up yet impractical ChatGPT-powered Operator travel service is a case in point.
In an era where AI applications in travel are flourishing, Trip.com cannot rely solely on investments or acquisitions to integrate AI into its app. Instead, it must have a deep understanding of product strategy—knowing which AI tools to acquire, which to form business partnerships with, which can be left unattended, and which previously neglected areas need re-prioritization.
China's AI talent pool is highly competitive, meaning Trip.com will likely face these challenges earlier than its Western counterparts. This may be why Trip.com recently appointed Chen Gang as its new Chief Product Officer. All OTAs will eventually grapple with these issues. Booking and Expedia’s AI agents currently focus solely on directing users to hotel bookings, but we believe they will eventually follow Trip.com’s path. However, such a shift requires concrete data feedback from the bottom up before strategic changes are made, as this would be a significant tactical adjustment.
Liang Jianzhang, as a technically savvy chairman, provides Trip.com with a first-mover advantage in AI adoption—a strategic edge that could be decisive in the evolving OTA landscape.
Trip.com’s Global Ambition: Still a “Map King” at Heart?
Trip.com’s recent decision to join the United Nations Global Compact (UNGC) reflects its long-term ambition for international markets.
This is not just an ESG branding move—companies invest in CSR initiatives only when they foresee future market gains. Much like how companies without plans to sell to the EU have little incentive to meet ESG standards, Trip.com’s participation in UNGC signals its commitment to expansion beyond Northeast and Southeast Asia.
In today’s shifting geopolitical landscape, China’s outbound strategy is evolving. While "Belt and Road" may no longer excite investors. As Trump makes his return with the MAGA agenda, Arab nations are also striving to reshape their global influence. In particular, we believe Saudi Arabia is actively pushing for an 'Arab version' of 'Make Arabs Great Again'. If China’s global strategy aligns with the Middle East’s ambitions, Trip.com (alongside Meituan) could emerge as key players in this transformation.
The AI-driven OTA battle will likely take shape within the next two years. Has Trip.com truly fallen behind? The answer will soon become evident.