Booking公告2021Q1財報
Booking announced 2021Q1 financial statement

Booking今期の電話会見では、注目に値するポイントが少なくないが、紙幅が限られているので、ここでは3つのポイントを選んで伝えたい。

1 、米国市場争奪戦。米国の総人口は中国の4分の1に過ぎないが、米国の宿泊業界の規模は中国の約2倍で、完全接種人数の急増もあいまって、現在の米国市場はグローバルOTAの最も競争の激しい戦場となっている。Airbnbのショートタームレンタル事業の収益は50%が米国からのもので、Expediaはこを狙っている。Expediaはホテル予約事業収益の50%を米国からのものており、今はBookingがこの市場を攻略している。Bookingは、米国市場で2021年Q1のホテル予約泊数が2019 年Q1よりもさらに高くなっている。アメリカの宿泊予約市場はやはり面白い。

2 、「航空券予約」事業にはもっと努力が必要だ。 Bookingは予約泊数を基准にして、2019年の予約泊数トップ18の国で「航空券予約」の新規事業を立ち上げた。効果から見ると、Q1航空券の成長率は2019年に比べて49%増加した。数字は良さそうだが、四半期毎の１億以上の予約泊数に比べて、100万件の航空券予約数はまだ小さく、2022年までに倍数的な増加ができなければ、航空券予約事業のポテンシャルは鶏肋のようなものになると思えている。

3、ポストコロナ時代に新規顧客を呼び戻す。 CFOは電話会議でのスピーチの最後に、旅行市場の回復に際して、宿泊市場のシェアを獲得するために投資を継続しなければならないと強調した。これは、利益率に影響を及ぼす可能性がある(create opportunities to invest, to gain share in accommodations, which could put pressure on margins)。私たちの理解では、新型コロナの間、多くの消費者が携帯電話からBookingなどの旅行アプリを削除したと推定されており、新規の顧客をゼロから育てなければならない。実際、Bookingは今回も米国市場で50ドルのクーポンを提供したことが明らかになった。これには二つの意味がある。一つは、旅行業界の大手企業が新規顧客を開拓する運命から逃れられないことだ。もう一つは、新型コロナの間もMAUを維持してきたeコマース企業が、ポストコロナ時代に再編された旅行業界に参入するチャンスがあるようだということだ。

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Booking의 이번 계절의 전화회의에서 중시를 돌려야 할 초점이 적지 않다. 편폭이 제한되여있으니 우리는 단지 세가지만 집중하게 논의하면 된다.

1. 미국 시장 쟁탈전임: 미국 인구는 중국의 4분의 1 밖에 안 되지만 미국의 호텔 업계 규모는 대략 중국의 두 배 정도다. 게다가 미국에서 백신 접종을 마친 인구가 빠르게 증가하고 있으며 현재 미국 시장은 국제OTA 1 급 전쟁지역이 되었다. Airbnb의 단기 임대 수입중 50%를 미국에서 얻었으며 Expedia는 갖은 방법을 다하여 공격해 들어온다. Expedia의 호텔 수입중 50%를 미국에서 올리고 있으며 이제 Booking로 바꿔 시장을 선점한다. Booking의 미국 룸나잇(Room Nights) 데이터는 2021년의 일사분기가 심지어 2019년의 일사분기보다도 높다. 보아하니 미국의 호텔 시장 쟁탈은 매우 재미있는 것 같다.

2. 항공권 판매에 여전히 노력해야 함: 룸나잇을 기준으로 Booking는 2019년에 룸나잇 전18위 안에 드는 국가들에 항공권 제품을 새롭게 추가했다. 그 효과로 보면 올해 일사분기의 항공권 증속이 2019년 동기에 비해 49% 늘어났다. 데이터는 좋을 듯하지만 Booking 분기 억체급 룸나잇에 비해 백만체급 항공권 판매는 여전히 미미하다. 만약 2022년에 아직 배수의 성장을 할 수 못한다면 우리는 미래라는이 제품선의 잠재력이 계륵과 같다고 생각한다.

3. 포스트 코로나 시대에 새 사용자를 얻기는 다시 시작함: CFO는 전화회의 연설이 끝나기 전에 한 중점을 두었다. 관광시장이 회복될 때 숙박 시장 점유율을 얻기 위해 반드시 투자 기회를 창출하고 이것은 이윤률에 압력을 가할지도 모른다(create opportunities to invest, to gain share in accommodations, which could put pressure on margins). 이에 대한 우리의 이해은 아래와 같다. Booking 등 여행 앱이 코로나19 발생 시간에 적잖은 이용자들에 의해 휴대폰에서 삭제되었으니 새 사용자를 얻기는 다시 시작해야 한다. 실제로 이번에도 미국의 시장에서 50달러 쿠폰을 준 것이 드러났다. 둘개 큰 의미가 있다. 하나는 관광 거두들이 새로운 사용자를 얻은 운명을 피할길이 없을 것이고 다른 하나 의미는 코로나19 발생 시간에 MAU를 유지할 수 있는 각 전자상거래들이 포스트 코로나 시대 재편될 때 관광 산업에 들어가는 기회가 있을 것 같다.  

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There are a lot of points worth paying attention to in the Booking conference call this season, here we only discuss 3 points due to limited space:

1. Battle for the US market: Although the US population is only one-fourth that of China, but the US hotel industry size is roughly twice that of China. In addition to the rapid increase in US population that fully vaccinated, the US market has become first-level battleground for international OTAs. 50% of Airbnb’s short-term rental revenue comes from US, and Expedia is trying to seize it; 50% of Expedia’s hotel revenue comes from the United States, and now Booking want to capture. The number of room nights in US of Booking 2021Q1 is even higher than that in 2019Q1. It seems that the competition for the hotel market in US is still very interesting.

2. Air ticket sales needs to work harder: Booking uses room nights as an indicator. They launched air ticket products in the top 18 countries with most room nights in 2019. From the perspective of effectiveness, the air tickets growth rate of Q1 increased by 49% compared with 2019. The figure looks not bad, but compared with Booking’s hundreds of millions of room nights in one single-season, the number of millions of ticket sales is still unremarkable. If multiple growth is not achievable in 2022, we believe that this product line is not really promising.

3. Clients acquisition in the post-pandemic era starts over: The CFO threw a key point before the end of the conference call. When he talked about the recovery of tourism market, he said "create opportunities to invest, to gain share in accommodations, which could put pressure on margins". Our interpretation is that during the pandemic, it is estimated that many travel apps such as Booking were deleted from mobile phones by many consumers, clients acquisition is necessary to start all over again. In fact, this time Booking also disclosed that it offer a coupon of $50 in the US market. This suggests two meanings. One is that travel giants may not be able to evade the fate of restart clients acquisition. The other is that e-commerce companies that can maintain MAU during the pandemic seem to have a chance to enter the tourism industry during the post-pandemic reshuffle.